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What does plausibility mean in relation to scenario planning and how do users of scenarios assess it? Despite the concept's ubiquity, its epistemological and empirical foundations remain unexplored in previous research.
Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele offers an interdisciplinary perspective: she presents approaches from philosophy of sciences, cognitive psychology, narrative theory and linguistics, and tests key hypotheses in an experimental study. A conceptual map lays out indicators for scenario plausibility and explains how assessments vary across scenario methods. This helps researchers and practitioners to better understand the implications of their methodological choices in scenario development.
Frontmatter 1
Content 5
List of Figures 9
List of Tables 11
Summary of the book 13
1 Introduction 17
2 Scenario planning: characteristics and current issues 27
3 Scenario plausibility: emerging debates in research and practice 57
4 Conceptual explorations: plausibility across disciplines 73
5 Empirical research: Methodology to study scenario plausibility 117
6 Experimental study: quantitative research findings 137
7 Experimental study: qualitative research findings 171
8 Synthesis: A conceptual map of scenario plausibility 193
9 Conclusions and outlook 215
Abbreviations 225
Acknowledgments 227
References 229